← terminal
backtestTR macrowindow 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30
[BACKTEST] Did Turkey's May 2026 annual CPI come in below the April 2026 annual CPI?
Resolution contractlocked 2026-07-07 ▪ first print rule on
Mayıs 2026 yıllık TÜFE (endeksten hesaplanan yoy) Nisan 2026 yoy değerinden kesin küçükse EVET.
edge cases · İki basamak hassasiyet; eşitlik HAYIR.
source · EVDS3 TP.TUKFIY2025.GENEL
ResolvedNOvia evds3 · 2026-07-07Brier 0.122
Forecast record
sealed rows are abstentions; the gate withheld the probability| At | Verdict | P(yes) | Evidence hash | Row hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 12:13 | CONSTRAINED | 35.0% | cc1d2f838445 | 2a2b464a1b8e |
Evidence ledger
admitted evidence only; quarantined items never reach the forecaster- no admitted evidence yet