We know when we cannot predict.

Certiora is a selective forecasting instrument. Every question is pre-registered, every forecast passes a verdict gate, every outcome is resolved against official statistical releases and appended to a public hash chain. When the evidence is not enough, the probability stays sealed: the abstention is part of the record.

How the gate works Verify the chain →

CalibrationBrier 0.324 gated · 0.250 shadow (no gate)N=4 resolved · backtestabstain 43% of forecastsupdated 15:24 UTCsmall sample (N=4) · gate-vs-shadow gap not yet meaningfulmethod →

Verdict gate · replaylatest real forecast per question · UTC

210 real forecasts queued · replay starts when visible

Track record · prediction vs outcome84 scored · sealed forecasts never counted

binned reliability curveunlocks at 30 · 84/30

84 published forecasts scored so far, 39 resolved YES. Too few to bin into a reliability curve; each is shown as one point. Sealed forecasts are never scored for accuracy.

Abstained

43%

373 of 875 forecasts sealed by the gate

Live questions

open or forecasted

Resolved

165

161 live · 4 backtest

Verdict distribution

all 875 live forecasts to date · questions are re-forecast as evidence arrives

DECIDE 0CONSTRAINED 404CAUTION 98ABSTAIN 373a young knowledge base abstains often; that is the design, not a bug

Live board

resolution windows through 2026-12-31

Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED33.1%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED24.1%NO
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED55.5%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED77.2%NO
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED68.8%NO
global macro07-08 → 07-16
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?
CONSTRAINED76.2%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?
CONSTRAINED59.1%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED57.8%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-17
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED6.6%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED50.0%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED45.0%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED95.0%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED90.2%YES
global macro07-05 → 07-23
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED25.1%NO
global macro07-15 → 07-23
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED89.9%YES
global macro07-16 → 07-23
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED58.8%NO
TR macro07-11 → 07-24
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 27, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED45.3%NO
energy07-20 → 07-27
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED89.8%NO
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED76.8%YES
global macro07-22 → 07-30
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED51.4%NO
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?
CONSTRAINED45.0%YES
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED95.4%YES
global macro07-12 → 07-30
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED8.7%YES
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED93.9%YES
global macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED44.5%YES
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED74.5%NO
global macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED81.3%NO
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED62.8%NO
energy07-24 → 07-31
0d
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED54.0%YES
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED17.5%NO
TR macro07-08 → 07-31
0d
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at its July 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED4.4%NO
global macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED88.4%NO
global macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED95.4%NO
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED75.3%YES
energy07-24 → 07-31
0d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED46.6%NO
energy07-24 → 07-31
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED92.9%NO
TR macro07-25 → 08-06
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED70.6%NO
global macro07-30 → 08-06
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED55.5%YES
TR macro07-25 → 08-06
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED16.3%NO
TR macro07-25 → 08-06
0d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED36.2%NO
energy07-31 → 08-07
0d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED47.5%NO
energy07-31 → 08-07
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED59.6%YES
TR macro07-25 → 08-07
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED64.6%YES
energy08-03 → 08-10
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED9.8%NO
TR macro08-01 → 08-13
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED57.1%YES
TR macro08-01 → 08-13
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED48.6%NO
global macro08-06 → 08-13
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 01, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED31.6%YES
global macro07-26 → 08-13
0d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED74.9%NO
energy08-07 → 08-14
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED55.2%NO
energy08-10 → 08-17
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED73.6%NO
TR macro08-08 → 08-20
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED53.5%NO
global macro08-13 → 08-20
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 14, 2026?
CONSTRAINED10.1%NO
TR macro08-08 → 08-20
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 14, 2026?
CONSTRAINED72.2%YES
TR macro08-08 → 08-20
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 08, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED86.4%NO
global macro08-02 → 08-20
0d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED48.7%NO
energy08-14 → 08-21
0d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED47.7%YES
energy08-14 → 08-21
0d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED66.6%NO
energy08-14 → 08-21
0d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED35.5%NO
energy08-14 → 08-21
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED68.9%YES
TR macro08-15 → 08-27
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 21, 2026?
CONSTRAINED78.4%YES
TR macro08-15 → 08-27
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED51.9%YES
global macro08-20 → 08-27
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 21, 2026?
CONSTRAINED41.9%NO
TR macro08-15 → 08-27
0d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED86.4%YES
energy08-21 → 08-28
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED65.5%NO
TR macro08-15 → 08-28
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED33.0%NO
energy08-21 → 08-28
0d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED66.1%YES
energy08-21 → 08-28
0d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED6.1%YES
energy08-21 → 08-28
0d
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED67.9%YES
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED94.6%YES
global macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 28, 2026?
CONSTRAINED86.5%YES
TR macro08-22 → 09-03
0d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED65.0%NO
energy08-28 → 09-04
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED45.5%YES
TR macro08-22 → 09-04
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED44.5%NO
energy08-28 → 09-04
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED71.6%YES
TR macro08-29 → 09-10
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED35.3%YES
global macro08-23 → 09-10
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED56.4%NO
TR macro08-29 → 09-10
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Sep 04, 2026?
CONSTRAINED25.4%YES
TR macro08-29 → 09-10
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED20.5%NO
global macro09-02 → 09-10
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?resolves next
CONSTRAINED38.8%resolves 09-11
energy09-04 → 09-11
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED74.2%NO
TR macro08-29 → 09-11
0d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED66.3%resolves 09-11
energy09-04 → 09-11
0d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED67.0%NO
energy09-04 → 09-11
0d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED60.7%resolves 09-11
energy09-04 → 09-11
0d
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED61.3%NO
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CONSTRAINED44.1%resolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?
CONSTRAINED92.7%resolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?
CONSTRAINED46.0%resolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CONSTRAINED83.1%resolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CONSTRAINED83.8%resolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED55.5%resolves 10-01
global macro09-24 → 10-01
18d
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?
CONSTRAINED29.3%resolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its October 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED46.0%resolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CONSTRAINED43.2%resolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CONSTRAINED60.2%resolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CONSTRAINED81.3%resolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CONSTRAINED54.9%resolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CONSTRAINED66.6%resolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will the CBRT policy rate on 30 Oct 2026 be below its 7 July 2026 level?
CONSTRAINED38.1%resolves 11-06
TR macro10-30 → 11-06
54d
Will Turkey's November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?
CONSTRAINED55.0%resolves 12-31
TR macro12-01 → 12-31
109d
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the December 2026 MPC meeting?
CONSTRAINED66.2%resolves 12-31
TR macro12-01 → 12-31
109d
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED75.0%resolves 12-31
global macro12-01 → 12-31
109d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
global macro06-28 → 07-16
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 20, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy07-13 → 07-20
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
global macro07-23 → 07-30
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
ABSTAINYES
global macro07-01 → 07-31
0d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-24 → 07-31
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro07-18 → 07-31
0d
Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-24 → 07-31
0d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-24 → 07-31
0d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-24 → 07-31
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 03, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-27 → 08-03
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 05, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
global macro07-29 → 08-06
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 31, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro07-25 → 08-06
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
global macro07-19 → 08-06
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 31, 2026?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro07-25 → 08-06
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro07-25 → 08-06
0d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-31 → 08-07
0d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-31 → 08-07
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy07-31 → 08-07
0d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy07-31 → 08-07
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro08-01 → 08-13
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 07, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-01 → 08-13
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro08-01 → 08-13
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 12, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
global macro08-05 → 08-13
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 07, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-01 → 08-13
0d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-07 → 08-14
0d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
energy08-07 → 08-14
0d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-07 → 08-14
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro08-01 → 08-14
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-07 → 08-14
0d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-07 → 08-14
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro08-08 → 08-20
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
global macro08-12 → 08-20
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
TR macro08-08 → 08-20
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-08 → 08-20
0d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
energy08-14 → 08-21
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-14 → 08-21
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-08 → 08-21
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-17 → 08-24
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
TR macro08-15 → 08-27
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
TR macro08-15 → 08-27
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-15 → 08-27
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
global macro08-09 → 08-27
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 26, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
global macro08-19 → 08-27
0d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy08-21 → 08-28
0d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy08-21 → 08-28
0d
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
ABSTAINYES
global macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CAUTIONYES
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CAUTIONYES
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
ABSTAINYES
global macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
ABSTAINNO
global macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CAUTIONNO
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?
CAUTIONYES
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?
ABSTAINYES
global macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
energy08-24 → 08-31
0d
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
ABSTAINYES
global macro08-01 → 08-31
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
global macro08-26 → 09-03
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONYES
global macro08-27 → 09-03
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-22 → 09-03
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
global macro08-16 → 09-03
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
TR macro08-22 → 09-03
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 28, 2026?
CAUTIONNO
TR macro08-22 → 09-03
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
TR macro08-22 → 09-03
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONYES
TR macro08-22 → 09-03
0d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
energy08-28 → 09-04
0d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-28 → 09-04
0d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONYES
energy08-28 → 09-04
0d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
energy08-28 → 09-04
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
energy08-31 → 09-07
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONYES
TR macro08-29 → 09-10
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
global macro09-03 → 09-10
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro08-29 → 09-10
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Sep 04, 2026?
CAUTIONNO
TR macro08-29 → 09-10
0d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONNO
energy09-04 → 09-11
0d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONresolves 09-11
energy09-04 → 09-11
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 09-14
energy09-07 → 09-14
1d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 05, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONYES
global macro09-10 → 09-17
4d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 12, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CAUTIONresolves 09-24
global macro09-17 → 09-24
11d
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
ABSTAINNO
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?
CAUTIONresolves 09-30
energy07-01 → 09-30
17d
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?
CAUTIONresolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?
CAUTIONresolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?
CAUTIONresolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
17d
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the October 2026 MPC meeting?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will Turkey's September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?
CAUTIONresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
48d
Will US October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?
CAUTIONresolves 11-30
global macro11-01 → 11-30
78d
Will the FOMC change the target range at its first meeting in the Oct-Nov 2026 window?
CAUTIONresolves 11-30
global macro10-01 → 11-30
78d
Will Turkey's October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?
CAUTIONresolves 11-30
TR macro11-01 → 11-30
78d
Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?
ABSTAINresolves 12-31
global macro12-01 → 12-31
109d
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the December 2026 meeting?
CAUTIONresolves 12-31
global macro12-01 → 12-31
109d

Question	Domain	Window	Verdict	P(yes)	Outcome
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	33.1%	YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	24.1%	NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	55.5%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	77.2%	NOrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-08 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	68.8%	NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	76.2%	YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	59.1%	YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-170d	CONSTRAINED	57.8%	YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	6.6%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	50.0%	YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	45.0%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	95.0%	YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-05 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	90.2%	YESrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-15 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	25.1%	NOrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-16 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	89.9%	YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-240d	CONSTRAINED	58.8%	NOrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 27, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-20 → 07-270d	CONSTRAINED	45.3%	NOrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	89.8%	NOrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-22 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	76.8%	YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	51.4%	NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	45.0%	YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-12 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	95.4%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	8.7%	YESrecord →
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	93.9%	YESrecord →
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	44.5%	YESrecord →
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	74.5%	NOrecord →
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	81.3%	NOrecord →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-24 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	62.8%	NOrecord →
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	54.0%	YESrecord →
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting?	TR macro	07-08 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	17.5%	NOrecord →
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at its July 2026 meeting?	global macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	4.4%	NOrecord →
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	88.4%	NOrecord →
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	95.4%	NOrecord →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-24 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	75.3%	YESrecord →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-24 → 07-310d	CONSTRAINED	46.6%	NOrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-25 → 08-060d	CONSTRAINED	92.9%	NOrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-30 → 08-060d	CONSTRAINED	70.6%	NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-25 → 08-060d	CONSTRAINED	55.5%	YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-25 → 08-060d	CONSTRAINED	16.3%	NOrecord →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-31 → 08-070d	CONSTRAINED	36.2%	NOrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-31 → 08-070d	CONSTRAINED	47.5%	NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-25 → 08-070d	CONSTRAINED	59.6%	YESrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-03 → 08-100d	CONSTRAINED	64.6%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-130d	CONSTRAINED	9.8%	NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-130d	CONSTRAINED	57.1%	YESrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-06 → 08-130d	CONSTRAINED	48.6%	NOrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 01, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-26 → 08-130d	CONSTRAINED	31.6%	YESrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-07 → 08-140d	CONSTRAINED	74.9%	NOrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-10 → 08-170d	CONSTRAINED	55.2%	NOrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-08 → 08-200d	CONSTRAINED	73.6%	NOrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-13 → 08-200d	CONSTRAINED	53.5%	NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 14, 2026?	TR macro	08-08 → 08-200d	CONSTRAINED	10.1%	NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 14, 2026?	TR macro	08-08 → 08-200d	CONSTRAINED	72.2%	YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 08, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-02 → 08-200d	CONSTRAINED	86.4%	NOrecord →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-14 → 08-210d	CONSTRAINED	48.7%	NOrecord →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-14 → 08-210d	CONSTRAINED	47.7%	YESrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-14 → 08-210d	CONSTRAINED	66.6%	NOrecord →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-14 → 08-210d	CONSTRAINED	35.5%	NOrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-15 → 08-270d	CONSTRAINED	68.9%	YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 21, 2026?	TR macro	08-15 → 08-270d	CONSTRAINED	78.4%	YESrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-20 → 08-270d	CONSTRAINED	51.9%	YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 21, 2026?	TR macro	08-15 → 08-270d	CONSTRAINED	41.9%	NOrecord →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-21 → 08-280d	CONSTRAINED	86.4%	YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-15 → 08-280d	CONSTRAINED	65.5%	NOrecord →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-21 → 08-280d	CONSTRAINED	33.0%	NOrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-21 → 08-280d	CONSTRAINED	66.1%	YESrecord →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-21 → 08-280d	CONSTRAINED	6.1%	YESrecord →
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-310d	CONSTRAINED	67.9%	YESrecord →
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-310d	CONSTRAINED	94.6%	YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 28, 2026?	TR macro	08-22 → 09-030d	CONSTRAINED	86.5%	YESrecord →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-28 → 09-040d	CONSTRAINED	65.0%	NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-22 → 09-040d	CONSTRAINED	45.5%	YESrecord →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-28 → 09-040d	CONSTRAINED	44.5%	NOrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-29 → 09-100d	CONSTRAINED	71.6%	YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-23 → 09-100d	CONSTRAINED	35.3%	YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-29 → 09-100d	CONSTRAINED	56.4%	NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Sep 04, 2026?	TR macro	08-29 → 09-100d	CONSTRAINED	25.4%	YESrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	09-02 → 09-100d	CONSTRAINED	20.5%	NOrecord →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?resolves next	energy	09-04 → 09-110d	CONSTRAINED	38.8%	resolves 09-11record →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-29 → 09-110d	CONSTRAINED	74.2%	NOrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	09-04 → 09-110d	CONSTRAINED	66.3%	resolves 09-11record →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	09-04 → 09-110d	CONSTRAINED	67.0%	NOrecord →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	09-04 → 09-110d	CONSTRAINED	60.7%	resolves 09-11record →
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CONSTRAINED	61.3%	NOrecord →
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CONSTRAINED	44.1%	resolves 09-30record →
Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CONSTRAINED	92.7%	resolves 09-30record →
Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CONSTRAINED	46.0%	resolves 09-30record →
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CONSTRAINED	83.1%	resolves 09-30record →
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CONSTRAINED	83.8%	resolves 09-30record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	09-24 → 10-0118d	CONSTRAINED	55.5%	resolves 10-01record →
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CONSTRAINED	29.3%	resolves 10-31record →
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its October 2026 meeting?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CONSTRAINED	46.0%	resolves 10-31record →
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CONSTRAINED	43.2%	resolves 10-31record →
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CONSTRAINED	60.2%	resolves 10-31record →
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CONSTRAINED	81.3%	resolves 10-31record →
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CONSTRAINED	54.9%	resolves 10-31record →
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CONSTRAINED	66.6%	resolves 10-31record →
Will the CBRT policy rate on 30 Oct 2026 be below its 7 July 2026 level?	TR macro	10-30 → 11-0654d	CONSTRAINED	38.1%	resolves 11-06record →
Will Turkey's November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?	TR macro	12-01 → 12-31109d	CONSTRAINED	55.0%	resolves 12-31record →
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the December 2026 MPC meeting?	TR macro	12-01 → 12-31109d	CONSTRAINED	66.2%	resolves 12-31record →
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting?	global macro	12-01 → 12-31109d	CONSTRAINED	75.0%	resolves 12-31record →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	06-28 → 07-160d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 20, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-13 → 07-200d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-23 → 07-300d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-24 → 07-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-310d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?	energy	07-24 → 07-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-24 → 07-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-24 → 07-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 03, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-27 → 08-030d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 05, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-29 → 08-060d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 31, 2026?	TR macro	07-25 → 08-060d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-19 → 08-060d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 31, 2026?	TR macro	07-25 → 08-060d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-25 → 08-060d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-31 → 08-070d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-31 → 08-070d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-31 → 08-070d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	07-31 → 08-070d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-130d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 07, 2026?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-130d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-130d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 12, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-05 → 08-130d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 07, 2026?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-130d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-07 → 08-140d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-07 → 08-140d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-07 → 08-140d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-140d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-07 → 08-140d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-07 → 08-140d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-08 → 08-200d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-12 → 08-200d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-08 → 08-200d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-08 → 08-200d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-14 → 08-210d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-14 → 08-210d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-08 → 08-210d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-17 → 08-240d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-15 → 08-270d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-15 → 08-270d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-15 → 08-270d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-09 → 08-270d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 26, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-19 → 08-270d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-21 → 08-280d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-21 → 08-280d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-310d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-310d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-310d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-310d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-310d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?	global macro	08-01 → 08-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-24 → 08-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-310d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-26 → 09-030d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-27 → 09-030d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-22 → 09-030d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-16 → 09-030d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-22 → 09-030d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 28, 2026?	TR macro	08-22 → 09-030d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-22 → 09-030d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-22 → 09-030d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-28 → 09-040d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-28 → 09-040d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-28 → 09-040d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-28 → 09-040d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	08-31 → 09-070d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-29 → 09-100d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	09-03 → 09-100d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	08-29 → 09-100d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Sep 04, 2026?	TR macro	08-29 → 09-100d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	09-04 → 09-110d	CAUTION		NOrecord →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	09-04 → 09-110d	CAUTION		resolves 09-11record →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?	energy	09-07 → 09-141d	ABSTAIN		resolves 09-14record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 05, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	09-10 → 09-174d	CAUTION		YESrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 12, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	09-17 → 09-2411d	CAUTION		resolves 09-24record →
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	ABSTAIN		resolves 09-30record →
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CAUTION		resolves 09-30record →
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	ABSTAIN		resolves 09-30record →
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CAUTION		resolves 09-30record →
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?	energy	07-01 → 09-3017d	CAUTION		resolves 09-30record →
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CAUTION		resolves 09-30record →
Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CAUTION		resolves 09-30record →
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CAUTION		resolves 09-30record →
Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	CAUTION		resolves 09-30record →
Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3017d	ABSTAIN		resolves 09-30record →
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	ABSTAIN		resolves 10-31record →
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the October 2026 MPC meeting?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	ABSTAIN		resolves 10-31record →
Will Turkey's September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3148d	CAUTION		resolves 10-31record →
Will US October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?	global macro	11-01 → 11-3078d	CAUTION		resolves 11-30record →
Will the FOMC change the target range at its first meeting in the Oct-Nov 2026 window?	global macro	10-01 → 11-3078d	CAUTION		resolves 11-30record →
Will Turkey's October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?	TR macro	11-01 → 11-3078d	CAUTION		resolves 11-30record →
Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?	global macro	12-01 → 12-31109d	ABSTAIN		resolves 12-31record →
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the December 2026 meeting?	global macro	12-01 → 12-31109d	CAUTION		resolves 12-31record →

Backtests

pipeline acceptance runs on already-published data; never mixed with live scores

backtestNO

Did the US FOMC change the upper target in the March 2026 window?

forecast 70.0% · CONSTRAINED

backtestNO

Did US April 2026 annual CPI come in below March 2026?

forecast 60.0% · CONSTRAINED

backtestNO

Did Turkey's May 2026 annual CPI come in below the April 2026 annual CPI?

forecast 35.0% · CONSTRAINED

backtestYES

Did Turkey's June 2026 annual CPI come in below May 2026 annual CPI?

forecast sealed · ABSTAIN · scored via shadow only

The record is public. Every forecast, published or sealed, is chained before the outcome exists. Verify it yourself →