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backtestglobal macrowindow 2026-05-01 → 2026-05-31
[BACKTEST] Did US April 2026 annual CPI come in below March 2026?
Resolution contractlocked 2026-07-07 ▪ first print rule on
Nisan 2026 yoy CPI (CPIAUCNS endeksinden) Mart 2026 yoy değerinden kesin küçükse EVET.
edge cases · Tek ondalık; eşitlik HAYIR.
source · FRED CPIAUCNS
ResolvedNOvia fred · 2026-07-07Brier 0.360
Forecast record
sealed rows are abstentions; the gate withheld the probability| At | Verdict | P(yes) | Evidence hash | Row hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 12:13 | CONSTRAINED | 60.0% | cc1d2f838445 | ce406f605e8c |
Evidence ledger
admitted evidence only; quarantined items never reach the forecaster- no admitted evidence yet