Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
No live resolutions this week.
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 65.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 56.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 66.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 65.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 64.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 64.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 59.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?: 64.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey's September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?: 36.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its October 2026 meeting?: 54.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?: 66.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the October 2026 MPC meeting?: 59.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the CBRT policy rate on 30 Oct 2026 be below its 7 July 2026 level?: 54.2% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the FOMC change the target range at its first meeting in the Oct-Nov 2026 window?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?: 44.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey's October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?: 47.2% (CONSTRAINED)
Withheld by the gate
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the FOMC change the target range at its first meeting in the Oct-Nov 2026 window?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #83 · 76dcc3d30543d4ec Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify \n