Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 55.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1980
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 10, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: 76.2% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0566
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 10, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: 59.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1673
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 24.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0581
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 57.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1781
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 89.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0102
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 74.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.5550
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 93.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0037
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 20, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 22, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 25.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0630
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 6.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.8724
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 45.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3025
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 17, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0031
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 50.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2500
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 90.2% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0096
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 17, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 95.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0025
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 58.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3457
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 27, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 40.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 81.3% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting?: 17.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 44.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 54.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: 99.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: 88.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at its July 2026 meeting?: 8.2% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 70.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 67.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 66.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 65.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: 36.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
Withheld by the gate
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #279 · aad12c901626fb4a Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify \n