Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 54.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2116
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 44.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3080
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 81.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.6610
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 27, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 45.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2052
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 24, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: 45.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3025
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 8.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.8336
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 89.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.8064
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.9025
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 29, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 76.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0538
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 51.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2642
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 95.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0021
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 24, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 46.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 62.8% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 46.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 03, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 65.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 62.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 84.8% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 47.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 92.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 5.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?: 92.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: 54.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: 40.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
Withheld by the gate
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 03, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #368 · 9611605dbe5cee4b Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify \n