Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3114
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 65.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4225
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 45.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2970
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3434
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 61.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3758
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.2362
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.5595
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0620
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 44.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1980
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 20.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0420
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 56.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3181
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0018
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 35.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4186
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Sep 04, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3036
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Sep 04, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: 25.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.5565
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 71.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 67.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 75.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 75.3% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 38.8% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 12, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 55.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the October 2026 MPC meeting?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 60.2% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 81.3% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 46.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 66.6% (CONSTRAINED)
Withheld by the gate
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 12, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the October 2026 MPC meeting?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #1054 · 65a4253ae28b30cd Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n