Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 65.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4290
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 66.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1149
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 67.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1030
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0231
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 94.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0029
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.8136
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting? -> NO. Forecast: 17.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0306
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.2550
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0864
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 86.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0185
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 6.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.8817
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 33.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1089
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0222
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 28, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0912
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 28, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: 86.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0182
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.8263
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3069
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.2209
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.2025
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0493
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 44.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 49.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 65.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 05, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 12, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 57.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: 46.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?: 92.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 44.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 61.3% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 83.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 83.8% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?: SEALED (CAUTION)
Withheld by the gate
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 05, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #945 · 9b4515557b67b04b Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n