Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 42.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3260
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 62.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1384
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1980
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1376
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0924
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 28, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 94.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0031
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0083
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0104
- Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3600
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0069
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.1798
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.8630
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 79.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0412
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 33.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1142
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0204
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Sep 19, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 57.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1789
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Sep 25, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.7344
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 74.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0655
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Sep 25, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0973
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 30, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0400
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?: 21.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 03, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 70.3% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 73.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: 24.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 45.3% (CONSTRAINED)
Withheld by the gate
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #1309 · e374fe9e2226f502 Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n