Certiora Weekly Record · week ending Oct 09, 2026

Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.

Resolved this week

• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1239
• Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1884
• Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 73.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.5344
• Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3341
• Will Turkey's September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3136
• Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Oct 05, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 55.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3058
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0004
• Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.4356
• Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Oct 02, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0225
• Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 40.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3516
• Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Oct 02, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 87.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0151
• Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.1089
• Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Oct 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 03, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 70.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0882

Forecasts placed or updated

• Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 21.0% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 36.3% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 52.3% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: 30.5% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 77.1% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 54.4% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 58.4% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 71.6% (CONSTRAINED)

Withheld by the gate

• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.

Chain

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