Certiora Weekly Record · week ending Oct 16, 2026

Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.

Resolved this week

• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Oct 02, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.3944
• Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 21.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.6241
• Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 37.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3856
• Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Oct 12, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 64.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1232
• Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.2304
• Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.2162
• Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 36.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1318
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0019
• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Oct 03, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.9025
• Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Oct 09, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0071
• Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 90.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0090
• Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Oct 09, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.7276
• Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0121
• Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Oct 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0625
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 10, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0031
• Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 65.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4303
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0441

Forecasts placed or updated

• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 71.5% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 45.5% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 41.8% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Oct 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 93.9% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 62.4% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: 61.4% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 61.2% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: 71.2% (CONSTRAINED)

Withheld by the gate

• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Oct 09, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Oct 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-11 come in below the 2026-10 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.

Chain

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