Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
This week in the machinery
This was the most consequential week since launch, and not because the numbers were good. They were not, and you can see every one of them below.
The learning loop closed. Resolved questions now feed back into the knowledge layer that produced them: our internal rule layer carries a real-world track record as of this week, updated only by outcomes, never by us.
First energy resolutions. The record now includes crude oil, natural gas and Türkiye's day-ahead electricity price (settled against the official market operator's published data), alongside the existing TR and US macro families.
Our worst published week, and what we did about it. Published-forecast Brier worsened to 0.284 while the always-on shadow baseline sat at 0.264. The diagnosis was specific, and the structural response is a stricter publication gate tied to the state of the admitted evidence: forecasts in the diagnosed failure class are now sealed instead of published. What we refused to do: repaint probabilities after the fact, drop the badly-performing question families, or relax any threshold. The shadow keeps scoring what the gate suppresses, so the gate itself is measurable and reversible.
The gate shipped with a mistake, and the chain holds it. Our first version of the gate formula quietly deviated from the measurement it was anchored to. A verification pass caught it before a single production forecast was affected. Both the flawed specification and its correction are sealed as consecutive blocks (#430, #431) in the public chain. A record that cannot hold bad news about itself is not a record.
One infrastructure note. A capacity fault in our data infrastructure caused an 11-hour outage this week. The public site degraded to placeholders instead of going down, no settled result was lost, and resolutions resumed with a delay. The root cause is fixed.
Resolved this week
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 95.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.9101
- Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at its July 2026 meeting? -> NO. Forecast: 4.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0019
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 88.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.7815
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 70.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4984
- Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 03, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 75.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0610
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 46.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2172
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 62.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3944
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 55.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1980
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 31, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 05, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.3807
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 31, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 92.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.8630
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 16.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0266
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 46.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 58.8% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 59.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 53.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 48.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 53.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 59.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 9.8% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 93.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 73.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 67.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 33.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: 33.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 63.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 55.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 47.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: 44.5% (CONSTRAINED)
Withheld by the gate
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #489 · e6a6a83d84dc5f95 Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify \n