Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 47.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2256
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 59.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1632
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 48.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2362
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 10, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 64.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1253
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.1218
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 36.2% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1310
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 07, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 12, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 01, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 31.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4679
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0936
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.4122
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 9.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0096
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 07, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 57.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1840
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 74.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 45.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 48.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 68.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 71.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the December 2026 meeting?: 92.2% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey's November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?: 45.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting?: 78.0% (CONSTRAINED)
Withheld by the gate
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #607 · 7df9cda0586ff4e8 Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n