Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 74.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.5610
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.5027
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 07, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 53.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2862
- Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.3080
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 17, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 55.2% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3047
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0640
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.5883
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 14, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: 10.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0102
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.4303
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 73.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.5417
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 14, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: 72.2% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0773
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 08, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 86.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.7465
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 19, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.1246
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 47.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 48.7% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 35.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 66.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 36.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 51.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 65.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?: 64.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: 44.5% (CONSTRAINED)
Withheld by the gate
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #724 · bf5a01af84929042 Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n