Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 66.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4436
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 48.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2372
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 51.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2314
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 35.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1260
- Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0016
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.4476
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0004
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 24, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.3147
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1089
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 47.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2735
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Aug 21, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: 78.4% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0467
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Aug 26, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0524
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Aug 21, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: 41.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1756
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 68.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0967
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0829
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0734
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 66.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 6.1% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 86.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Aug 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 63.2% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 33.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 67.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 05, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 55.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: 54.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?: 53.0% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?: 90.3% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 66.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
Withheld by the gate
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Aug 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #847 · 68c7e8d7538b3002 Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n